DailyKos: CA-Sen, Gov: Lean D, but competitive

Source: "Kos" Markos Moulitsas Zuniga/DailyKos.com

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% (8/2-12/09 results)

Let's start with the governor's race:

Poizner is the ultra-conservative teabagger candidate in the race, and going nowhere, so we're likely to get a Whitman/Brown matchup. Both those candidates are evenly matched in favorabilities, though the state's Democratic tilt gives Brown a bit of a head start. The results are still a bit surprising, however. Brown has run the most invisible, stealth campaign, in state history. Seriously, the dude is nowhere to be found. Meanwhile, Whitman has spent tents of millions of dollars in her campaign, and is running on near saturation television ads:

The campaign’s Gross Rating Point report, measuring total delivery of the current week’s broadcast ad schedule in 11 markets in California, shows that eMeg’s buy is comparable to what a fully-loaded campaign might ordinarily deliver in the closing weeks of a heated race – not three months before a primary that she’s prohibitively leading.

“These are some big fuckin’ numbers,” said Bill Carrick, the veteran Democratic media consultant after reviewing the report. “She’s buying the whole shebang.”

While she may be the prohibitive favorite in the primary, it's done little to bolster her general election standing. She's gained just two points on Jerry Brown since last August. And remember, that's against Brown's invisible campaign.

Brown dominates in the Bay Area 61-22, while Whitman does best down South, around San Diego, 56-34. Independents split 41-40, with Brown with the small but statistically insignificant edge. 19 percent of independents remain undecided.

The biggest undecided block are African Americans, who break 66-6 for Brown, but with 28 percent undecided. Getting them out to vote will be key for Brown. Same with Latinos, who give Brown a 60-27 edge, with 13 percent undecided.

Brown may be 255 years old (give or take a decade), but voters over 60 go for Whitman 45-38. The Millennials  remain the strongest Democratic age group -- 49-37 for Brown. They are also the least likely to vote. Thus Brown's early edge is one built on a shaky foundation -- strong support from the demographics least likely to turn out and vote. Whitman has been running a gaffe prone campaign thus far. If she gets her act together, this could be a real dogfight.

Full post at http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/3/11/845189/-CA-Sen,-Gov:-Lean-D,-but-competitive

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