Daily Kos/R2K Poll: Brown, Boxer Hold Narrow But Stable Leads
by: Robert Cruickshank, Calitics.com
Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 12:00:00 PM PST
Confirming what many of us have expected, the Daily Kos/Research 2000 Poll of the California Senate and gubernatorial races shows that both races lean Democratic, but will be dogfights between now and November (numbers in parentheses are from DKos/R2K August 2009 poll of California):
Republican primary
Meg Whitman (R) 52 (24)
Steve Poizner (R) 19 (9)(Tom Campbell, then in the governor's race, got 19 percent in August 2009 poll)
General election
Meg Whitman (R) 41 (36)
Jerry Brown (D) 45 (42)Steve Poizner (R) 33 (34)
Jerry Brown (D) 48 (43)Favorable/Unfavorable
Brown (D) 52/40 (48/37)
Whitman (R) 51/35 (41/30)
Poizner (R) 37/40 (35/27)
No real surprises here. Whitman's TV barrage has increased her numbers - but then again so has Jerry Brown, who sees a 3 point boost even though he hasn't lifted a finger to campaign. Before we assume that validates his campaign strategy, Markos Moulitsas has some important thoughts on the crosstabs:
The biggest undecided block are African Americans, who break 66-6 for Brown, but with 28 percent undecided. Getting them out to vote will be key for Brown. Same with Latinos, who give Brown a 60-27 edge, with 13 percent undecided.
Brown may be 255 years old (give or take a decade), but voters over 60 go for Whitman 45-38. The Millennials remain the strongest Democratic age group -- 49-37 for Brown. They are also the least likely to vote. Thus Brown's early edge is one built on a shaky foundation -- strong support from the demographics least likely to turn out and vote. Whitman has been running a gaffe prone campaign thus far. If she gets her act together, this could be a real dogfight.
This proves what I said back in January in my How Jerry Brown Can Win post - he needs to prioritize outreach to Millennial voters, Latinos and African-Americans. He cannot win this election without them.
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Original post at http://www.calitics.com/diary/11268/daily-kosr2k-poll-brown-boxer-hold-narrow-but-stable-leads